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TMTPOST -- Apple Inc. is poised to achieve record iPhone shipments in 2025, fueled by surging demand for its latest iPhone 17 series and a dramatic sales revival in China, its largest market, according to U.S. market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC). The performance marks a turning point for the tech giant amid intensifying competition in key markets.
Credit：Apple
Apple will ship 247.4 million iPhones this year, up 6.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous record of 236 million units set in 2021 during the iPhone 13 cycle, IDC forecast in a report Tuesday. The projection reflects stronger-than-expected demand across all regions, including the U.S. and Western Europe.
In China, massive demand for the iPhone 17 propelled Apple's market share above 20% in October and November, with the company ranking first in both months, according to IDC's China Monthly Sales data. The research firm revised its fourth-quarter China forecast for Apple from 9% to 17% year-on-year growth, turning a previously projected 1% annual decline into 3% growth.
The surge is expected to generate over $261 billion in iPhone revenue for 2025, representing 7.2% growth from the prior year. However, IDC cautioned that global smartphone shipments may decline 0.9% in 2026 due to rising memory chip prices and Apple's decision to delay its next base iPhone model until early 2027.
Record Performance Across All Markets
"Apple is set to have a record year in 2025 with shipments forecast to cross 247 million units, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series," said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC. "The success story is replicated across all regions, including the U.S. and Western Europe that had previously slowed down."
Global smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 1.5% to 1.25 billion units in 2025, up from IDC's prior projection of 1% growth. The upgrade was primarily driven by Apple's accelerated holiday quarter performance, rapid growth in key emerging markets, and stabilization in China.
2026 Downturn Expected
IDC revised its 2026 forecast downward from 1.2% growth to a 0.9% decline due to component shortages and product cycle adjustments. Apple's strategic decision to shift its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is expected to pull down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year.
The ongoing global memory shortage will constrain supply and raise costs, hitting low-to-mid range Android devices hardest as they remain more price sensitive. Despite declining unit volumes, the average selling price (ASP) is projected to climb to $465 in 2026, pushing total market value to a record $578.9 billion.
"As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices," said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC. "Vendors need to adopt different strategies to protect their market share."
Market Leadership Projections
IDC's forecast follows a report last week from Counterpoint Research projecting Apple to ship more smartphones than Samsung Electronics Co. in 2025 for the first time in 14 years. Counterpoint attributed Apple's resurgence to strong demand for the iPhone 17 series and consumers entering upgrade cycles after pandemic-era purchases.
Bloomberg reported last month that Apple could delay the release of the base model iPhone 18 until 2027, breaking its regular cycle of releasing all phones in fall each year.
The iPhone 17 series launched in September amid questions about Apple's artificial intelligence (AI) strategy and intensifying competition from Android rivals, particularly in China where local players like Huawei have been capturing market share.
